A growing number of top U.S. executives are bracing for an economic downturn, according to a new survey by Chief Executive. Of the 300 CEOs polled in April, 62% expect a recession within six months—up sharply from 48% in March.
The shift comes amid heightened concern over President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policy, which has rattled markets and fueled business uncertainty. Three-quarters of CEOs said tariffs would harm their businesses in 2025, while two-thirds oppose the proposed levies.
The survey’s index of current business conditions dropped 9% in April, following a 20% plunge in March, hitting its lowest level since early 2020. Expectations for future conditions remained unchanged but are at their weakest since 2012.
More than 80% of CEOs anticipate rising costs this year, with half forecasting double-digit expense hikes. Only 37% expect profit growth, down from 76% in January.
Still, some executives are hopeful—just over half see business conditions improving next year, up from 39% in March. Relief may also be on the horizon as Trump announced a temporary exemption for tariffs on smartphones and PCs.
Business leaders like JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink have echoed concerns, with Fink warning the U.S. may already be in a recession.
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