Chargepoint Consolidation, Digital UX Comes of Age, the Quality Cost Conundrum: Key EV Trends for 2025  

2024 was a challenging year for EV advocates. Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical crises, the new Labour government attempted to balance a manifesto commitment to reinstate the 2030 phase out date for diesel and petrol vehicles, with pushback from the automotive industry over the commercial realities of complying with the ZEV mandate. Meanwhile a steady stream of negative commentary from anti-EV media outlets knocked consumer sentiment. It didn’t help that the recent COP29 Summit was hijacked by the oil and gas lobby.

Yet for anyone prepared to drill down into the details, it’s clear that the EV revolution is alive and well. Yes, there are hurdles – as there are with any form of tech scale up. But the trajectory is still firmly in favour of full electrification over the next decade.  

And don’t be in any doubt – consumers are still buying EVs. Figures just in show that last year EVs accounted for a record 19.6% of the UK market although still shy of the mandated 22%.   

Meanwhile, recent reports suggest that the numbers of petrol cars will start to decline in 2025 while the number of EVs in use is expected to rise by 33% to 1.66 million in the UK in 2025, accounting for 5% of all cars on the road.

Here, in the first of a two-part series, four EV experts share their thoughts and predictions for the coming year. There is a strong sense of optimism – but also a realisation that a few things must change if we are to shift consumer mindsets back in favour of EVs.   

Industry incentives will be a key battleground by David Mitchell, chief growth officer, Futurice.

The UK’s new Labour government is tussling with leading car manufacturers over EV sales targets. With Stellantis and Ford both cutting UK jobs, the auto lobby is looking for government incentives to encourage faster consumer take up. Labour is in no mood to spend public money, but with consumer take up slowing in 2024, it needs to find a way to address industry concerns if it is to fulfil its desired 2030 ban on sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles. Straightforward industry incentives seem unlikely, but the outcome of its two part consultation on the 2030 ban and the ZEV mandate, will need to explore some kind of relief for the industry, or face the prospect of further job cuts. Innovative purchasing options (perhaps akin to the tax efficient salary sacrifice scheme) and how to shore up the second hand value of EVs, will be key discussion points for policy makers in 2025.  

Digital UX can be a key driver of EV sales

EV purchase is typically framed as a vote in favour of the environment. But 2025 will see the industry develop new narratives – not least the fact the EVs are great to drive. For younger generations, more emphasis will be placed on the digital capabilities that come hand in hand with EVs. This requires OEMs placing a lot more effort into improving their digital EV experience such as companion apps. Communicating the EV user experience and explaining how it fits into a digital lifestyle, could help pull younger consumers into buying EVs.   

Melanie Shufflebotham, COO & co-founder, Zap-Map. 

Growth in high-powered charging and hubs to continue  

2023 and 2024 have been bumper years for charge point installations, and I expect there to be continued progress particularly in installing high-powered and ultra-rapid networks – 150-300kW, which are ideal for those on longer journeys.  Hubs (featuring six or more chargers) have proven popular with drivers, and it is expected that more will be rolled out in 2025, especially in well known retail locations. Sainsbury’s is already rolling out its Smart Charge network, but other large retailers will enter the market, either directly or in partnerships. 

Charging operator consolidation and specialisation on the way  

There will probably be consolidation in the operator market, as there are over 80 charge point operator networks at the moment, and that’s not sustainable. At the same time, we’ll see specialisation, as operators focus on a differentiated offering – rapid and ultra-rapid, home charging, destination charging, lower powered on-street charging etc. 2025 will also see the large-scale roll out of tens of thousands of on-street charge points under the government-backed LEVI scheme (Local Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) with similar schemes in Scotland and Wales. In 2025 we can also expect to see local councils make progress on policies to allow more throughstreet chargers – featuring a cable through the pavement – allowing EV drivers to charge their vehicles from a home charger, and enjoy the associated benefits of smart charging and lower costs.  

Coherent messaging in support of EV expansion 

The anti-EV lobby has drip fed negative messages about electrification through sectors of the mainstream media. But in 2025, the industry will respond – ensuring more factual and positive messages about the benefits of EVs get into the media. Ideally this would involve the support of government in parallel with co-ordinated efforts across industry bodies such as EVA England, Charge UK and the newly formed Electric Vehicles UK. 

Claire Miller, independent adviser, Tellegen (formerly director of technology and innovation, Octopus Electric Vehicles).  

UK public charge point regulations will instil consumer confidence  

Q4 2024 saw the latest requirements under the UK’s public charge point regulations take effect. This sets new standards for how pricing is displayed and the availability of contactless payments. It also states that the UK expects its public charging infrastructure to be up 99% of the time. If companies aren’t meeting that benchmark, something will be done – so I’m excited to see what this means for the reliability of the network and consumer confidence. As a related point, I think we’ll see a stronger lobby for open data sharing now that the UK has this world leading regulation in place.  

Sticking to the ZEV mandate will create stability for investors 

Labour made a manifesto pledge to achieve zero emissions by 2030. This is a challenging target, but it is important that they stand firm. Investors need clear signals from the government that we are pushing ahead with EVs, and have a reliable, stable infrastructure.  

European manufacturers will tackle quality-cost conundrum 

All eyes have been on China’s cut-price EVs. But Europe is fighting back. The Renault 5, for example, has been reimagined as an EV, with a base price of £22,999, which is really good value. The Renault 5 E-Tech also comes with the capability to facilitate vehicle-to-grid bi-directional charging. In France it’s being launched with a vehicle-to-grid energy proposition which is likely to come to the UK too. It’s the first example of a car that can be vehicle-to-grid and as such helps to make vehicle-to-grid – and the whole EV revolution –  real for consumers.  

Jim Shaw, chief experience officer, Bloom3 (formerly VP Customer Experience and Innovation, Forseven). 

China set to dominate EV; US and Europe to respond with tariffs

Over the last 15-20 years, China has put itself into a position to dominate EV production globally. They’ve engineered an advantage in two ways, and they are just starting to push on that. Firstly, there is EV manufacturing. Backed by state subsidies, they have created big companies like SAIC, NIO, BYD and CATL (the world’s largest battery manufacturer). At the same time, they have structured their way of working around Software Defined Vehicles (SDV) to prepare for the era of autonomous EVs. So they have everything facing in the right direction, with the right capabilities. This makes Europe look like a laggard. In the short term, this means Europe and the US are likely to respond with tariffs of around 40%, which could then mean a trade war.  

Private sector joined up thinking provides a pathway to electrification 

The private sector has some powerful electrification champions like the UK’s Octopus Energy. Octopus is working across a range of verticals from infrastructure right through to the generation of renewable energy. The firm knows we need renewable energy, but it also knows we need to capture it through means such as BEVs. At the same time, Octopus is developing its ‘electroverse’, which brings a unified experience to users across charge point providers. Companies like Octopus are a great blueprint for how the private (and public) sector can increase infrastructure capacity faster.   

Battery tech will be a critical factor in EV battle for supremacy  

Elon Musk has always recognised the critical importance of EV batteries and his EV pioneer Tesla probably leads in the adoption of innovative cell formats. The chemistry underlying batteries continues to be a key trend in 2025 because it has a direct bearing on efficiency and performance, something the Chinese also recognise. The question is how do we get higher density, more cost effectively, into a battery? That involves getting a finer grade of ore and weaning the industry off critical minerals like manganese and lithium. Developments like Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries are important, because they are stable, longer-lasting and environment-friendly. I think we’re going to see a lot more battery manufacture happening closer to EV demand centres and becoming more effectively integrated into the supply chain.